Let me start by saying that I love my iPhone. I can barely function without it any longer. Seriously, I went to a wedding last weekend in northern Michigan and had no reception for 4 days! It was brutal. Your sympathies are much appreciated. For all of you planning weddings out there, try to consider the mental health of your electronic addict friends before scheduling. Enough about me and the daily crosses I must bear. Back to the iPhone’s demise.
Before we proceed, a little history lesson (don’t worry, it’s short). Back in the early 1980’s, Apple dominated the PC market. They were titans. Controlling, with an iron fist, the hardware and software for their beautiful machines. Then along came Microsoft. They didn’t really care too much about the hardware. They allowed everyone to go ahead and build their own machines: IBM, HP, Dell, Gateway, Joe & Mary PC Nuts, and anyone else with access to computer hardware. These computers were ugly, grotesque, gargantuan, and, above all, cheap. The result: Microsoft came to dominate the world while Apple, for 20 years, languished on the brink of destruction.
Of course, the last 7 or 8 years have seen a great resurgence for Apple. It started with OS X and some good new laptop computers, was greatly advanced by the iPod, and has absolutely exploded with the iPhone. So much so, that in the past few weeks Apple has passed Microsoft in market cap. That’s right, on paper, Apple is now a bigger company than Microsoft. So much for Apple being the underdog.
But I fear that Apple is gearing up to make the same mistake they did 30 years ago with the PC. They control both the hardware and software – including a dictatorial rule over the apps that are allowed to run on it. Contrast this to Google that is basically just writing software and allowing HTC, Motorola, Samsung, and any other hardware manufacturer create their own devices. You can also bet your bottom dollar that Microsoft will take the same tact. In fact, when they announced the release of Windows Phone 7 they announced they’d be partnering with Dell, HTC, LG, Samsung, Sony-Ericsson, and more for hardware; and Verizon, AT&T, T-Mobile, and Sprint for carriers.
So what does all this “software for any hardware” mean? It means that non-Apple phones are going to get cheaper and cheaper and the data/voice/text plans for them are also going to plummet in price. Apple has a huge head start and a great product. They are not going to die any time soon. But the question is, even with this great product, can Apple count on a huge customer base that will be willing to pay a lot more for their devices?
If the PC wars of the past are any indication, the answer is, “No,” and Apple is in trouble.








